The Rams and Bengals returned 47.9% and 43.9% of all kickoffs during the regular season, respectively, which would suggest a value of roughly +125 even before accounting for the ball used in the title game. YwqWtg9vxO- Barstool Sportsbook February 7, 2021 No touchback is now 18/20 in L20 opening Super Bowl kickoffs Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? - NO (+250) ✅ Here's how that turned out for him in Super Bowl LV: The Rams kicker also ranks 15th in touchback percentage (63.7%), sitting only slightly higher than McPherson (60.4%).Ĭonsider, too, that Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker boasted the league's fifth-highest touchback rate (75.8%) a year ago with an average kickoff distance of 63.4 yards. Gay led the league in kickoffs (102) during the regular season but ranked 33rd in average kickoff distance (61.9 yards) among 46 players with at least 10 tries. So, given all they're up against, will either kicker in this year's Super Bowl join that exclusive touchback club in the open air of SoFi Stadium?ĭon't count on it. Only two kickers - Justin Tucker (2013) and Matt Bosher (2017) - have managed a touchback since the 2011 rule changes, and both of those kicks happened in a dome. McAfee's opening boot in 2010 was one of 49 opening kickoffs that were returned in the 55-year history of the Super Bowl. According to former All-Pro specialist Pat McAfee - who booted the opening kickoff for the Colts in Super Bowl XLI - the ball used in title games isn't handled until the opening kickoff, and it's kicked just once before being removed and preserved for the Hall of Fame. Kickers are usually able to break in the specialized "K-Ball" - a harder and slicker ball that the league introduced in 1999 - ahead of the opening kickoff, which helps soften the football and make it easier to boot 75 yards down the field. What's the reason for this unbelievable trend in the big game? There's a simple explanation: the ball. Since the kickoff moved to the 35-yard line in 2011, just two opening kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks - even as sportsbooks continue to deal "yes" as the overwhelming favorite. In 2012, 43.5% of all kickoffs resulted in touchbacks in 2016, the NFL moved touchbacks to the 25-yard line in a series of rule changes that led to a record touchback percentage (61.2%) last season.īut none of that has mattered in the Super Bowl. The rule was effective at reducing injuries, and it drastically increased the regularity of touchbacks. Then, in 2011, the league reversed course and moved kickoffs back to the 35-yard line to reduce concussions sustained on returns. ![]() ![]() The effect is clear in the Super Bowl data, too: from 1994 to 2010, every single title game opened with a kickoff return. Over the next 17 years, just 11.3% of all kickoffs resulted in touchbacks. One of those changes involved moving the kickoff spot from the 35-yard line to the 30-yard line, which saw the league's touchback percentage plummet from 23.3% in 1993 to a mere 7% the following season. In 1994, the NFL introduced a series of rule changes to increase scoring and counter a dramatic increase in field-goal attempts. That trend comes despite a bevy of recent rule changes intended to improve player safety - primarily by increasing the likelihood of touchbacks. It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that "no" at plus money is a screaming value, especially with each of the last four Super Bowls opening with a kick return. A whopping 26 of 28 Super Bowls since 1994 have not featured a touchback on the opening kickoff.
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